DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0790.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050214609
论文题名: Origins of the decadal predictability of East Asian land summer monsoon rainfall
作者: Li J. ; Wang B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 16 起始页码: 6229
结束页码: 6243
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interaction
; Climate prediction
; Decadal variability
; Forcing
; Precipitation
; Sea surface temperature
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate prediction
; Decadal variability
; Forcing
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric forcing
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; summer
; Far East
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The present study aims to explore the origins of decadal predictability of East Asian land summer monsoon rainfall (EA-LR) and estimate its potential decadal predictability. As a preliminary study, a domain-averaged EA-LR index (EA-LI) is targeted as it represents the leading mode of variability reasonably well. It is found that the decadal variations of EA-LI are primarily linked to a cooling over the central-eastern tropical Pacific (CEP) and a warming over the extratropical North Pacific and western tropical Pacific (NWP) during May- October. Two numerical experiments suggest that the CEP cooling may be a major driver of EA-LR, while the NWP warming, which is largely a response, cannot be treated as a forcing to EA-LR. However, this does not mean that the NWP sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) play no role. To elaborate on this point, a third experiment is conducted in which the observed cooling is nudged in the CEP but the SST is nudged to climatology in the NWP (i.e., atmosphere-ocean interaction is not allowed). The result shows anomalous northerlies and decreased rainfall over East Asia. Results of the three experiments together suggest that both the forcings from the CEP and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the NWP are important for EA-LR. Assuming that the tropical and North Pacific SSTAs can be ''perfectly'' forecasted, the so-called perfect prediction of EA-LI, which is achieved by a physics-based empirical model, yields a significant temporal correlation coefficient skill of 0.70 at a 7-10-yr lead time during a 40-yr independent hindcast (1968-2009), providing an estimation of the lower bound of potential decadal predictability of EA-LI. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111430
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Wang B.. Origins of the decadal predictability of East Asian land summer monsoon rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(16)