DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0667.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049748532
论文题名: The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity
作者: Lewis N. ; Curry J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 15 起始页码: 6051
结束页码: 6071
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate sensitivity
; Feedback
; Forcing
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Feedback
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate sensitivity
; Forcing
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Historical periods
; Internal variability
; Sea-surface temperature change
; Temperature estimation
; Volcanic activities
; Climate models
; atmospheric forcing
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; sea surface temperature
; volcanic aerosol
; warming
英文摘要: Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Recent revisions to greenhouse gas forcing and post-1990 ozone and aerosol forcing estimates are incorporated and the forcing data extended from 2011 to 2016. Reflecting recent evidence against strong aerosol forcing, its AR5 uncertainty lower bound is increased slightly. Using an 1869-82 base period and a 2007-16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for ECS of 1.50 K (5%-95% range: 1.05-2.45 K) and for TCR of 1.20 K (5%-95% range: 0.9-1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011. Using infilled, globally complete temperature data give slightly higher estimates: a median of 1.66 K for ECS (5%-95% range: 1.15-2.7 K) and 1.33 K for TCR (5%-95% range: 1.0-1.9 K). These ECS estimates reflect climate feedbacks over the historical period, assumed to be time invariant. Allowing for possible time-varying climate feedbacks increases the median ECS estimate to 1.76 K (5%-95% range: 1.2-3.1 K), using infilled temperature data. Possible biases from non-unit forcing efficacy, temperature estimation issues, and variability in sea surface temperature change patterns are examined and found to be minor when using globally complete temperature data. These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111445
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Bath, United Kingdom; Climate Forecast Applications Network, Reno, NV, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lewis N.,Curry J.. The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(15)