DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0428.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049735835
论文题名: Historical and future changes of snowfall events in China under a warming background
作者: Zhou B. ; Wang Z. ; Shi Y. ; Xu Y. ; Han Z.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 15 起始页码: 5873
结束页码: 5889
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asia
; Climate change
; Regional models
; Snowfall
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Snow
; Asia
; Eastern Tibetan plateau
; Heavy snowfall
; Northwestern China
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional model
; Southeastern china
; Trends
; Climate change
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; future prospect
; historical perspective
; regional climate
; snow
; trend analysis
; warming
; China
; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
英文摘要: Using station data and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulations under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, this article addresses historical and future changes of the wintertime snowfall over China. The observational results generally show a decrease in the frequency and an increase in the mean intensity of snowfalls in northwestern China (NWC), northeastern China (NEC), the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and southeastern China (SEC) since the 1960s. The total amount of wintertime snowfall, however, has increased in NWC, NEC, and ETP but decreased in SEC. The decrease in snow days is primarily due to the reduction of light snowfall events. The increase in the total amount is primarily explained by increases in heavy snowfalls, and the corresponding decrease is the result of decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The RegCM4 ensemble, which can well simulate the observed snowfall climatology, projects that the snow days will be further reduced by the end of the twenty-first century relative to 1986-2005, primarily owing to the decline of light snowfall events. The total amount is projected to increase in NWC but decrease in the other three subregions. The increase in the total amount in NWC is attributed to increases in heavy and large snowfalls. Decreases in light snowfalls play a leading role in the decrease of the total amount in NEC. In ETP and SEC, the decrease in the total amount is the result of overall decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The mechanism for such changes is an interesting topic to study in the future. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111447
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, China; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhou B.,Wang Z.,Shi Y.,et al. Historical and future changes of snowfall events in China under a warming background[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(15)