DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0736.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048466876
论文题名: What can the internal variability of CMIP5 models tell us about their climate sensitivity?
作者: Lutsko N.J. ; Takahashi K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 13 起始页码: 5051
结束页码: 5069
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate sensitivity
; Climate variability
; Clouds
; Multidecadal variability
; Tropical variability
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Clouds
; Feedback
; Regression analysis
; Surface properties
; Climate sensitivity
; Climate variability
; Global mean surface temperature
; Multidecadal variability
; Physical interpretation
; Temperature perturbations
; Temperature variability
; Tropical variability
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; cloud
; CMIP
; decadal variation
; energy flux
; surface temperature
英文摘要: The relationship between climate models' internal variability and their response to external forcings is investigated. Frequency-dependent regressions are performed between the outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy fluxes and the global-mean surface temperature in the preindustrial control simulations of the CMIP5 archive. Two distinct regimes are found. At subdecadal frequencies the surface temperature and the outgoing shortwave flux are in quadrature, while the outgoing longwave flux is linearly related to temperature and acts as a negative feedback on temperature perturbations. On longer time scales the outgoing shortwave and longwave fluxes are both linearly related to temperature, with the longwave continuing to act as a negative feedback and the shortwave acting as a positive feedback on temperature variability. In addition to the different phase relationships, the two regimes can also be seen in estimates of the coherence and of the frequency-dependent regression coefficients. The frequency-dependent regression coefficients for the total cloudy-sky flux on time scales of 2.5 to 3 years are found to be strongly (r2 > 0.6) related to the models' equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs), suggesting a potential "emergent constraint" for Earth's ECS. However, O(100) years of data are required for this relationship to become robust. A simple model for Earth's surface temperature variability and its relationship to the TOA fluxes is used to provide a physical interpretation of these results. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111466
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru
Recommended Citation:
Lutsko N.J.,Takahashi K.. What can the internal variability of CMIP5 models tell us about their climate sensitivity?[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(13)