DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0304.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049754209
论文题名: Probabilities of causation of climate changes
作者: Hannart A. ; Naveau P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 14 起始页码: 5507
结束页码: 5524
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Climate variability
; Statistical techniques
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Decision making
; Earth (planet)
; Probability
; Adaptation policies
; Climate variability
; Detection and attributions
; Extreme weather events
; Human influences
; Multiple changes
; Statistical techniques
; Temperature changes
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; conceptual framework
; estimation method
; extreme event
; probability
; statistical analysis
英文摘要: Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes is to have been caused by human influence is important for decision making with regard to mitigation and adaptation policy. Here we describe an approach for deriving the probability that anthropogenic forcings have caused a given observed change. The proposed approach is anchored into causal counterfactual theory (Pearl 2009), which was introduced recently, and in fact partly used already, in the context of extreme weather event attribution (EA). We argue that these concepts are also relevant to, and can be straightforwardly extended to, the context of detection and attribution of long-term trends associated with climate change (D & A). For this purpose, and in agreement with the principle of fingerprinting applied in the conventional D & A framework, a trajectory of change is converted into an event occurrence defined by maximizing the causal evidence associated to the forcing under scrutiny. Other key assumptions used in the conventional D & A framework, in particular those related to numerical model error, can also be adapted conveniently to this approach. Our proposal thus allows us to bridge the conventional framework with the standard causal theory, in an attempt to improve the quantification of causal probabilities. An illustration suggests that our approach is prone to yield a significantly higher estimate of the probability that anthropogenic forcings have caused the observed temperature change, thus supporting more assertive causal claims. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111471
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Ouranos, Montreal, QC, Canada; Institut Franco-Argentin d'Etudes du Climat et ses Impacts, CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina; LSCE, CNRS/CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Recommended Citation:
Hannart A.,Naveau P.. Probabilities of causation of climate changes[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(14)