DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0707.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048508429
论文题名: Initialization and potential predictability of soil moisture in the Canadian seasonal to Interannual Prediction System
作者: Sospedra-Alfonso R. ; Merryfield W.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 13 起始页码: 5205
结束页码: 5224
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-land interaction
; ENSO
; Hindcasts
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal variability
; Soil moisture
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Snow
; Soil moisture
; Tropics
; Weather forecasting
; Atmosphere-land interactions
; ENSO
; Hindcasts
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal variability
; Soil surveys
; annual variation
; atmosphere-biosphere interaction
; atmospheric forcing
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; hindcasting
; seasonal variation
; soil moisture
; teleconnection
英文摘要: The initialization and potential predictability of soil moisture in CanCM4 hindcasts during 1981-2010 is assessed. CanCM4 is one of the two global climate models employed by the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) providing operational multiseasonal forecasts for Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Soil moisture forecast initialization in CanSIPS is determined by the response of the land component to forcing from data-constrained model atmospheric fields. We evaluate hindcast initial conditions for soil moisture and its atmospheric forcings against observation-based datasets. Although model values of soil moisture variability compare relatively well with a blend of two reanalysis products, there is significant disagreement in the tropics and arid regions linked to biases in precipitation, as well as in snow-covered regions, likely the result of biases in the timing of snow onset and melt. The temporal variance of initial soil moisture anomalies is typically larger in regions of considerable precipitation variability and in cold continental areas of shallow soil depth. Appreciable variance of initial conditions, combined with persistence of the initial anomalies and the model's ability to represent future climate variations, lead to potentially predictable soil moisture variance exceeding 60% of the total variance for up to 3-4 months in the tropics and 6-7 months in the mid- to high latitudes during hemispheric winter. Potential predictability at longer leads is primarily found in the tropics and extratropical areas of ENSO-teleconnected influences. We use lagged partial correlations to show that ENSO-teleconnected precipitation in CanCM4 is a likely source of potential predictability of soil moisture up to 1-yr lead in CanSIPS hindcasts. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111477
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Sospedra-Alfonso R.,Merryfield W.J.. Initialization and potential predictability of soil moisture in the Canadian seasonal to Interannual Prediction System[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(13)