DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0403.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048465638
论文题名: Decadal shift of NAO-linked interannual sea level variability along the U.S. northeast coast
作者: Kenigson J.S. ; Han W. ; Rajagopalan B. ; Yanto ; Jasinski M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 13 起始页码: 4981
结束页码: 4989
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North Atlantic Oscillation
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Sea level
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Risk management
; Accurate prediction
; Coastal sea level
; Dynamic linear model
; North Atlantic Ocean
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Sea level pressure
; Sea level variability
; Spatial patterns
; Sea level
; accuracy assessment
; air-sea interaction
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; prediction
; sea level change
; sea level pressure
; westerly
; wind field
; Atlantic Coast [North America]
; Atlantic Coast [United States]
; United States
英文摘要: Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO-sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. These results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, to achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111480
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, Jenderal Soedirman University, Purwokerto, Indonesia; Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kenigson J.S.,Han W.,Rajagopalan B.,et al. Decadal shift of NAO-linked interannual sea level variability along the U.S. northeast coast[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(13)