DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0464.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048152767
论文题名: Different ways of framing event attribution questions: The example of warm and wet winters in the United Kingdom similar to 2015/16
作者: Christidis N. ; Ciavarella A. ; Stott P.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 12 起始页码: 4827
结束页码: 4845
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic effects
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Risk assessment
; Statistical techniques
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Risk assessment
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic effects
; Atmospheric model
; Key characteristics
; Oceanic conditions
; Rainfall thresholds
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Statistical techniques
; Threshold exceedance
; Oceanography
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; geostatistics
; greenhouse gas
; risk assessment
; seasonal variation
; winter
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Attribution analyses of extreme events estimate changes in the likelihood of their occurrence due to human climatic influences by comparing simulations with and without anthropogenic forcings. Classes of events are commonly considered that only share one or more key characteristics with the observed event. Here we test the sensitivity of attribution assessments to such event definition differences, using the warm and wet winter of 2015/16 in the United Kingdom as a case study. A large number of simulations from coupled models and an atmospheric model are employed. In the most basic case, warm and wet events are defined relative to climatological temperature and rainfall thresholds. Several other classes of events are investigated that, in addition to threshold exceedance, also account for the effect of observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, the circulation flow, or modes of variability present during the reference event. Human influence is estimated to increase the likelihood of warm winters in the United Kingdom by a factor of 3 or more for events occurring under any atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but also for events with a similar circulation or oceanic state to 2015/16. The likelihood of wet winters is found to increase by at least a factor of 1.5 in the general case, but results from the atmospheric model, conditioned on observed SST anomalies, are more uncertain, indicating that decreases in the likelihood are also possible. The robustness of attribution assessments based on atmospheric models is highly dependent on the representation of SSTs without the effect of human influence. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111512
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Christidis N.,Ciavarella A.,Stott P.A.. Different ways of framing event attribution questions: The example of warm and wet winters in the United Kingdom similar to 2015/16[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(12)