DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0456.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047091365
论文题名: Cold season southwest Asia precipitation sensitivity to El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events
作者: Hoell A. ; Barlow M. ; Xu T. ; Zhang T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 11 起始页码: 4463
结束页码: 4482
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asia
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; El Nino
; La Nina
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Lanthanum
; Probability distributions
; Upper atmosphere
; Asia
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; EL Nino
; La nina
; Nickel compounds
英文摘要: The sensitivity of southwest Asia (25°-40°N, 40°-70°E) precipitation during the November-April rainy season to four types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño and La Niña, is assessed using an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations forced by 1979-2015 boundary conditions. Sensitivity is assessed in terms of 1) the spread of precipitation across the ensemble members around the ensemble mean, 2) the probability of precipitation falling into the upper and lower terciles of the historical distribution, and 3) the relationship between the tropical atmosphere and southwest Asia precipitation during ENSO. During CP La Niña, the magnitude of the below-average mean precipitation exceeds the magnitude of the precipitation spread, thereby conditioning the probability of lower-tercile southwest Asia precipitation to greater than 70%. By contrast, EP La Niña does not alter the odds of southwest Asia precipitation terciles, as the magnitude of the near-zero mean precipitation is overwhelmed by the magnitude of the precipitation spread. EP and CP El Niño similarly result in above-average mean precipitation whose magnitude approaches the magnitude of the precipitation spread, thereby conditioning the probability of upper-tercile southwest Asia precipitation to around 50% region-wide. However, the notable effect of the precipitation spread during El Niño allows for a 20%-30% probability that the regional precipitation falls into the lower tercile. ENSO types simultaneously modify the probability of eastern Indian Ocean precipitation and southwest Asia precipitation, supporting the hypothesis that the tropical eastern Indian Ocean atmosphere serves as the medium by which ENSO forcing is communicated to southwest Asia. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111537
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hoell A.,Barlow M.,Xu T.,et al. Cold season southwest Asia precipitation sensitivity to El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(11)