DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0391.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047069868
论文题名: Changes in hurricanes from a 13-Yr convection-permitting pseudo- global warming simulation
作者: Gutmann E.D. ; Rasmussen R.M. ; Liu C. ; Ikeda K. ; Bruyere C.L. ; Done J.M. ; Garrè L. ; Friis-Hansen P. ; Veldore V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 9 起始页码: 3643
结束页码: 3657
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Cloud resolving models
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; North America
; Regional models
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Storms
; Translation (languages)
; Tropics
; Weather forecasting
; Wind
; Cloud resolving model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Global climate system
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; North America
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional model
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Hurricanes
英文摘要: Tropical cyclones have enormous costs to society through both loss of life and damage to infrastructure. There is good reason to believe that such storms will change in the future as a result of changes in the global climate system and that such changes may have important socioeconomic implications. Here a high-resolution regional climate modeling experiment is presented using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate possible changes in tropical cyclones. These simulations were performed for the period 2001-13 using the ERA-Interim product for the boundary conditions, thus enabling a direct comparison between modeled and observed cyclone characteristics. The WRF simulation reproduced 30 of the 32 named storms that entered the model domain during this period. The model simulates the tropical cyclone tracks, storm radii, and translation speeds well, but the maximum wind speeds simulated were less than observed and the minimum central pressures were too large. This experiment is then repeated after imposing a future climate signal by adding changes in temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind speeds derived from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the current climate, 22 tracks were well simulated with little changes in future track locations. These simulations produced tropical cyclones with faster maximum winds, slower storm translation speeds, lower central pressures, and higher precipitation rates. Importantly, while these signals were statistically significant averaged across all 22 storms studied, changes varied substantially between individual storms. This illustrates the importance of using a large ensemble of storms to understand mean changes. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111559
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Research Application Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; DNV GL Climate Action Programme, Group Technology and Research, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Gutmann E.D.,Rasmussen R.M.,Liu C.,et al. Changes in hurricanes from a 13-Yr convection-permitting pseudo- global warming simulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(9)