DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0416.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047074217
论文题名: Uncertainty in future summer precipitation in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin: Dynamical downscaling and the influence of continental-scale processes on regional climate change
作者: Peltier W.R. ; D'Orgeville M. ; Erler A.R. ; Xie F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 7 起始页码: 2651
结束页码: 2673
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Numerical analysis/modeling
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; Dynamical downscaling
; Eastern north america
; Initial condition ensembles
; Laurentian Great Lakes
; Numerical analysis/modeling
; Region characteristics
; Regional climate changes
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Lakes
英文摘要: Physics-based miniensembles of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configurations have been employed to investigate future precipitation changes over the Great Lakes basin of eastern North America. All physics configurations have been employed to downscale multiple distinct Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), simulations driven by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) radiative forcing scenario, spanning a range from moderate (2045-60) to considerable (2085-2100) climate change. Independent of the physics configuration employed, all projected future precipitation changes are characterized by a general increase and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution by the end of the century. The fattening of the tail can however be masked by natural variability in the case of the moderate warming expected by midcentury. The heavy-rainfall-derived precipitation increase is projected to be larger than or equal to the Clausius-Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% increase per degree Celsius of surface warming, whereas the increase of average-rainfall-based precipitation becomes limited only for the largest global warming projections. This limitation is dramatically illustrated in one physics configuration at the end of the century. By downscaling the results obtained from the initial-condition ensemble, it is demonstrated that the extreme drying of the Great Lakes basin region characteristic of the most extreme end member of the CESM1 ensemble is significantly modified by downscaling with the version of WRF coupled to the Freshwater Lake model (FLake) of lake processes. This result does, however, depend upon the physics configuration employed in WRF for the parameterization of processes that cannot be explicitly resolved. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111567
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Peltier W.R.,D'Orgeville M.,Erler A.R.,et al. Uncertainty in future summer precipitation in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin: Dynamical downscaling and the influence of continental-scale processes on regional climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(7)