DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047096342
论文题名: Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM large ensemble
作者: Labe Z. ; Magnusdottir G. ; Stern H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 8 起始页码: 3233
结束页码: 3247
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; Climate variability
; Sea ice
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Ferroelectric RAM
; Regional planning
; Uncertainty analysis
; Arctic
; Assimilation system
; Climate variability
; Emissions scenarios
; In-situ observations
; Interannual variability
; Internal variability
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Sea ice
; climate change
; ensemble forecasting
; ice thickness
; marginal sea
; sea ice
; spatiotemporal analysis
; trend analysis
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic
; Arctic Ocean
; East Siberian Sea
; Fram Strait
; Greenland
英文摘要: Because of limited high-quality satellite and in situ observations, less attention has been given to the trends in Arctic sea ice thickness and therefore sea ice volume than to the trends in sea ice extent. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variability in Arctic sea ice thickness using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). Additionally, the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (LENS) is used to quantify the forced response and internal variability in the model. A dipole spatial pattern of sea ice thickness variability is shown in both PIOMAS and LENS with opposite signs of polarity between the East Siberian Sea and near the Fram Strait. As future sea ice thins, this dipole structure of variability is reduced, and the largest interannual variability is found only along the northern Greenland coastline. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) projection, average September sea ice thickness falls below 0.5 m by the end of the twenty-first century. However, a regional analysis shows internal variability contributes to an uncertainty of 10 to 20 years for the timing of the first September sea ice thickness less than 0.5 m in the marginal seas. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111573
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Labe Z.,Magnusdottir G.,Stern H.. Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM large ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(8)