globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0016.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041646566
论文题名:
Potential large-scale forcing mechanisms driving enhanced North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the mid-1990s
作者: Zhao H.; Duan X.; Raga G.B.; Sun F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:4
起始页码: 1377
结束页码: 1397
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate variability ; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Hurricanes ; Oceanography ; Storms ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Climate variability ; Interdecadal changes ; Observational analysis ; Physical mechanism ; Sea surface temperatures ; Tropical cyclone ; Tropical cyclone activity ; Vertical wind shear ; Climate change ; atmospheric forcing ; climate change ; climate variation ; decadal variation ; sea surface temperature ; temperature anomaly ; tropical cyclone ; westerly ; wind shear
英文摘要: A significant increase of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is observed over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during the recent decades (1995-2014). In this study, the changes in large-scale controls of the NATL TC activity are compared between two periods, one before and one since 1995, when a regime change is observed. The results herein suggest that the significantly enhanced NATL TC frequency is related mainly to the combined effect of changes in the magnitudes of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic factors and their association with TC frequency. Interdecadal changes in the role of vertical wind shear and local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the NATL appear to be two important contributors to the recent increase of NATL TC frequency. Low-level vorticity plays a relatively weak role in the recent increase of TC frequency. These changes in the role of large-scale factors largely depend on interdecadal changes of tropical SST anomalies (SSTAs). Enhanced low-level westerlies to the east of the positive SSTAs have been observed over the tropical Atlantic since 1995, with a pattern nearly opposite to that seen before 1995. Moreover, the large-scale contributors to the NATL TC frequency increase since 1995 are likely related to both local and remote SSTAs. Quantification of the impacts of local and remote SSTAs on the increase of TC frequency over the NATL basin and the physical mechanisms require numerical simulations and further observational analyses. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111662
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Geosciences, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Zhao H.,Duan X.,Raga G.B.,et al. Potential large-scale forcing mechanisms driving enhanced North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity since the mid-1990s[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(4)
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