globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0226.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040938672
论文题名:
How predictable are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the variability and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere
作者: Domeisen D.I.V.; Badin G.; Koszalka I.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:3
起始页码: 997
结束页码: 1014
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic Oscillation ; Climate variability ; Forecasting ; North Atlantic Oscillation
Scopus关键词: Forecasting ; Time measurement ; Arctic Oscillation ; Arctic oscillations ; Atmospheric conditions ; Climate variability ; Ensemble prediction ; Lyapunov spectrum ; North Atlantic oscillations ; Northern Hemispheres ; Atmospheric pressure ; Arctic Oscillation ; climate variation ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Northern Hemisphere ; prediction ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Because of the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO and AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found along with characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist, however, between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12-16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18-20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111680
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Domeisen D.I.V.,Badin G.,Koszalka I.M.. How predictable are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the variability and predictability of the Northern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(3)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Domeisen D.I.V.]'s Articles
[Badin G.]'s Articles
[Koszalka I.M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Domeisen D.I.V.]'s Articles
[Badin G.]'s Articles
[Koszalka I.M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Domeisen D.I.V.]‘s Articles
[Badin G.]‘s Articles
[Koszalka I.M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.