DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0919.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040941938
论文题名: Diagnosing human-induced dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of extreme rainfall
作者: Cheng L. ; Hoerling M. ; Smith L. ; Eischeid J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 3 起始页码: 1029
结束页码: 1051
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Dynamics
; El Nino
; Statistical techniques
; Teleconnections
; Thermodynamics
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dynamics
; Nickel
; Rain
; Thermodynamics
; Water vapor
; Atmospheric dynamics
; Atmospheric water vapor
; EL Nino
; Global-mean temperature
; Precipitable water vapor
; Statistical techniques
; Teleconnections
; Thermodynamic factors
; Climate change
; climate change
; El Nino
; extreme event
; rainfall
; regional climate
; statistical analysis
; teleconnection
; thermodynamics
; Oklahoma [United States]
; Texas
; United States
英文摘要: Factors responsible for extreme monthly rainfall over Texas and Oklahoma during May 2015 are assessed. The event had a return period of at least 400 years, in contrast to the prior record, which was roughly a 100-yr event. The event challenges attribution science to disentangle factors because it occurred during a strong El Niño, a natural pattern of variability that affects the region's springtime rains, and during the warmest global mean temperatures since 1880. Effects of each factor are diagnosed, as is the interplay between El Niño dynamics and human-induced climate change. Analysis of historical climate simulations reveals that El Niño was a necessary condition for monthly rains to occur having the severity of May 2015. The model results herein further reveal that a 2015 magnitude event, whether conditioned on El Niño or not, was made neither more intense nor more likely to be due to human-induced climate change over the past century. The intensity of extreme May rainfall over Texas and Oklahoma, analogous to the 2015 event, increases by roughly 5% by the latter half of the twenty-first century. No material changes occur in either El Niño-related teleconnections or in overall atmospheric dynamics during extreme May rainfall over the twenty-first century. The increased severity of Texas/Oklahoma May rainfall events in the future is principally due to thermodynamic driving, although much less than implied by simple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling arguments given a projected 23% increase in atmospheric precipitable water vapor. Other thermodynamic factors are identified that act in opposition to the increase in atmospheric water vapor, thereby reducing the effectiveness of overall thermodynamic driving of extreme May rainfall changes over Texas and Oklahoma. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111692
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cheng L.,Hoerling M.,Smith L.,et al. Diagnosing human-induced dynamic and thermodynamic drivers of extreme rainfall[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(3)