DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0354.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041662039
论文题名: Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using surface relative humidity and temperature
作者: Todd A. ; Collins M. ; Lambert F.H. ; Chadwick R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 4 起始页码: 1413
结束页码: 1433
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; ENSO
; General circulation models
; Hydrologic cycle
; Precipitation
; Tropics
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Tropics
; Climate model simulations
; ENSO
; General circulation model
; Hydrologic cycles
; Relative humidity and temperatures
; Surface air temperatures
; Tropical precipitation
; Weak temperature gradient approximations
; Climate change
; air temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; hydrological cycle
; precipitation (climatology)
; relative humidity
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Large uncertainty remains in future projections of tropical precipitation change under global warming. A simplified method for diagnosing tropical precipitation change is tested here on present-day El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation shifts. This method, based on the weak temperature gradient approximation, assumes precipitation is associated with local surface relative humidity (RH) and surface air temperature (SAT), relative to the tropical mean. Observed and simulated changes in RH and SAT are subsequently used to diagnose changes in precipitation. Present-day ENSO precipitation shifts are successfully diagnosed using observations (correlation r = 0.69) and an ensemble of atmosphere-only (0.51 ≤ r ≤ 0.8) and coupled (0.5 ≤ r ≤ 0.87) climate model simulations. RH (r = 0.56) is much more influential than SAT (r = 0.27) in determining ENSO precipitation shifts for observations and climate model simulations over both land and ocean. Using intermodel differences, a significant relationship is demonstrated between method performance over ocean for present-day ENSO and projected global warming (r = 0.68). As a caveat, the authors note that mechanisms leading to ENSO-related precipitation changes are not a direct analog for global warming-related precipitation changes. The diagnosis method presented here demonstrates plausible mechanisms that relate changes in precipitation, RH, and SAT under different climate perturbations. Therefore, uncertainty in future tropical precipitation changes may be linked with uncertainty in future RH and SAT changes. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111694
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Todd A.,Collins M.,Lambert F.H.,et al. Diagnosing ENSO and global warming tropical precipitation shifts using surface relative humidity and temperature[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(4)