DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0393.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040615919
论文题名: Assessing the stationarity of australian precipitation extremes in forced and unforced CMIP5 simulations
作者: Lewis S.C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 1 起始页码: 131
结束页码: 145
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australia
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
; Precipitation
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Stochastic systems
; Australia
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
; Hydrological response
; Paleoclimatic record
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation variability
; Trends
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; CMIP
; extreme event
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation assessment
; stochasticity
; trend analysis
; Australia
英文摘要: Knowledge of the range of precipitation variability and extremes is restricted in regions such as Australia, where instrumental records are short and paleoclimatic records are limited in spatial and temporal extent and resolution. In such comparatively data-poor regions, there is limited context for understanding the statistical unusualness of recently observed extreme events, such as heavy rain and drought, and the influence of stochastic and anthropogenic forcings on their magnitude. This study attempts to further understandings of the range of forced and unforced variability using CMIP5 climate models. Focusing on extremes in the magnitude of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, the distribution of instrumental-period observed precipitation in various Australian regions is compared to simulated precipitation in historical experiments as well as various long experiment (preindustrial control and Last Millennium) and anthropogenically forced simulations of the twenty-first century (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). There is no systematic increase in the magnitude of simulated extremes corresponding to the length of model simulations, although many realizations reveal higher magnitude extremes compared to those observed, suggesting that the duration of the instrumental record may not capture the potential severity of stochastically driven extremes. A coherent increase in both wet and dry extremes is simulated throughout Australian regions in high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, demonstrating a forced hydrological response. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111732
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Lewis S.C.. Assessing the stationarity of australian precipitation extremes in forced and unforced CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(1)