DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0101.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040539632
论文题名: Predictability and non-Gaussian characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation
作者: Önskog T. ; Franzke C.L.E. ; Hannachi A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 537
结束页码: 554
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North Atlantic Oscillation
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Stochastic models
; Teleconnections
; Time series
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Gaussian distribution
; Oceanography
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Time series
; Auto regressive models
; Nonlinear interactions
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Spatio-temporal scale
; Statistical properties
; Surface weather conditions
; Teleconnections
; Gaussian noise (electronic)
; climate variation
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; prediction
; probability
; stochasticity
; teleconnection
; time series
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin and has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions. It is the result of complex and nonlinear interactions between many spatiotemporal scales. Here, the authors study the statistical properties of two time series of the daily NAO index. Previous NAO modeling attempts only considered Gaussian noise, which can be inconsistent with the system complexity. Here, it is found that an autoregressive model with non-Gaussian noise provides a better fit to the time series. This result holds also when considering time series for the four seasons separately. The usefulness of the proposed model is evaluated by means of an investigation of its forecast skill. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111735
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Önskog T.,Franzke C.L.E.,Hannachi A.. Predictability and non-Gaussian characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)