DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0106.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040587528
论文题名: Trends in extreme rainfall frequency in the contiguous United States: Attribution to climate change and climate variability modes
作者: Armal S. ; Devineni N. ; Khanbilvardi R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 1 起始页码: 369
结束页码: 385
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Interannual variability
; Interdecadal variability
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Rain
; Regression analysis
; Statistical tests
; Surface properties
; Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Interannual variability
; Trends
; Climate change
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; rainfall
; temperature anomaly
; trend analysis
; United States
英文摘要: This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1244 rainfall stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies or to a combination of well-known cyclical climate modes with varying quasiperiodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypothesis is made based on the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the U.S. Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the U.S. Northwest, West, and Southwest climate regions. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111737
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Tech., Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City College, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Armal S.,Devineni N.,Khanbilvardi R.. Trends in extreme rainfall frequency in the contiguous United States: Attribution to climate change and climate variability modes[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(1)