DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.006
论文题名: Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the Caribbean
作者: Losada I.J. ; Reguero B.G. ; Méndez F.J. ; Castanedo S. ; Abascal A.J. ; Mínguez R.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8309
出版年: 2013
卷: 104 起始页码: 34
结束页码: 50
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Inter-annual variability
; Latin America and the Caribbean
; Non-stationary extremes
; Sea-level components
; Sea-level rise
; Storm surge
Scopus关键词: Interannual variability
; Latin America and the Caribbean
; Nonstationary
; Sea level rise
; Storm surges
; Floods
; Regression analysis
; Storms
; Sea level
; annual variation
; computer simulation
; extreme event
; long-term change
; sea level change
; storm surge
; Caribbean Islands
; Latin America
; South America
英文摘要: When considering the threat of rising sea-levels, one must take into account not only the changes in the Mean Sea-Level, but also storm surges and changes in extreme events which may also have a bearing on coastal problems. In this study, we combine different components of the total sea-level (astronomical tide, monthly mean sea-level and storm surges) to explain changes detected in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean. Methods based on non-stationary extreme value analysis were applied to storm surge and total sea elevations monthly maxima for the last six decades, while long-term trends in Mean Sea-level were computed from both local regression and a trend-EOF technique. In addition, the relative importance of each factor contributing to the total sea-level is explored by means of defining each statistical distribution. The analysis demonstrates that concerns should be focused on the different components of sea-level in the various areas of the region. For example, changes in the storm surge levels are a key stressor in the Río de la Plata area, while the increase in the extreme total sea-levels in the tropical region and the influence of inter-annual variability on its western coast are the prominent factors. Results show that a clear correspondence between Mean Sea-Level and the Niño3 climate index can be found through a simple regression model, explaining more than 65% of the variance for a representative location on the Peruvian coast. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84875299260&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.02.006&partnerID=40&md5=7b4f4d757ad5841c468d5bcfc5931713
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11215
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Losada I.J.,Reguero B.G.,Méndez F.J.,et al. Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the Caribbean[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,104.