DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.003
论文题名: Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook
作者: Roxy M. ; Patil N. ; Aparna K. ; Ashok K.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8314
出版年: 2013
卷: 104 起始页码: 51
结束页码: 60
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; ENSO - Indian monsoon teleconnections
; ENSO Modoki
Scopus关键词: ENSO Modoki
; Indian summer monsoon
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Linear analysis
; Potential impacts
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Teleconnections
; Twentieth century
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Computer simulation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; teleconnection
; twentieth century
; India
英文摘要: The climate change experiments under the fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely the twentieth century simulations (20C3M) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, are revisited to study whether these models can reproduce the ENSO and ENSO Modoki patterns as the two important modes from statistical linear analysis as observed. The capability of the models in simulating realistic ENSO/ENSO Modoki teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon, and also the implications for the future are also explored. Results from the study indicate that only ~. 1/4th of the models from 20C3M capture either ENSO or ENSO Modoki pattern in JJAS. Of this 1/4th, only two models simulate both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes. Again, out of these two, only one model simulates both ENSO and ENSO Modoki as important modes during both summer and winter.It is also shown that the two models that demonstrate ENSO Modoki as well as ENSO associated variance in both 20C3M and SRESA1B represent the links of the ISMR with ENSO reasonably in 20C3M, but indicate opposite type of impacts in SREA1B. With the limited skills of the models in reproducing the monsoon, the ENSO and ENSO Modoki, it is difficult to reconcile that the teleconnections of a tropical driver can change like that. All these indicate the challenges associated with the limitations of the models in reproducing the variability of the monsoons and ENSO flavors, not to speak of failing in capturing the potential impacts of global warming as they are expected to. More research in improving the current day simulations, improving model capacity to simulate better by improving the Green House Gases (GHG) and aerosols in the models are some of the important and immediate steps that are necessary. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84875630120&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.02.003&partnerID=40&md5=cf8a63cafaf0386e168488895dd4239d
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11220
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Recommended Citation:
Roxy M.,Patil N.,Aparna K.,et al. Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,104.