DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.032
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044949126
论文题名: Double the dates and go for Bayes — Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies
作者: Blaauw M. ; Christen J.A. ; Bennett K.D. ; Reimer P.J.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2018
卷: 188 起始页码: 58
结束页码: 66
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Age-depth model
; Bayesian statistics
; Chronological uncertainties
; Radiocarbon dates
Scopus关键词: Geology
; Bayesian statistics
; Chronological order
; Chronological uncertainties
; Depth models
; Environmental change
; Late quaternary
; Radiocarbon dates
; Sediment core
; Natural sciences
; accuracy assessment
; age-related difference
; Bayesian analysis
; chronology
; dating method
; numerical model
; paleoenvironment
; precision
; Quaternary
; radiocarbon dating
; reconstruction
; sediment core
; statistical analysis
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/112217
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland BT7 1NN, United Kingdom; Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas CIMAT, Guanajuato, Guanajuato 36023, Mexico; School of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland KY16 9AL, United Kingdom; Queen's Marine Laboratory, Queen's University Belfast, Portaferry, Northern Ireland BT22 1PF, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Blaauw M.,Christen J.A.,Bennett K.D.,et al. Double the dates and go for Bayes — Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2018-01-01,188