DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.01.007
论文题名: A new approach to combine climate change projections by ordered weighting averaging operator; applications to northwestern provinces of Iran
作者: Amir Rahmani M. ; Zarghami M.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8318
出版年: 2013
卷: 102 起始页码: 41
结束页码: 50
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Combining
; Downscaling
; Fuzzy quantifiers
; General climate models
; Northwestern Iran
; Ordered weighted averaging operator
Scopus关键词: Combining
; Down-scaling
; Fuzzy quantifiers
; Northwestern Iran
; Ordered weighted averaging operator
; Climate models
; Decision making
; Environmental management
; Lasers
; Statistical methods
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; decision making
; downscaling
; emission
; environmental management
; fuzzy mathematics
; precision
; public attitude
; risk assessment
; synoptic meteorology
; uncertainty analysis
; Iran
英文摘要: The projections of the climate change by using General Climate Models (GCMs) are uncertain. Hence, combining the results of GCMs is now an effective solution to tackle this uncertainty. To evaluate the performance of GCMs, a new measure based on the similarity of the projections is defined. In defining this measure the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) approach is used. The relative weights of the GCMs projections in different stations, to be aggregated by the OWA operator, are obtained by regular increasing monotone fuzzy quantifiers, which model the risk preferences of the decision maker. To show the effectiveness of the approach, climate change in the northwestern provinces of Iran is studied by using the data of 15 synoptic stations. The weather generator of LARS-WG is used to downscale the GCMs under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) for the period 2011 to 2030. The combined results, by using the similarity values, indicate a -0.1. °C to +. 4.5. °C change in temperature in the region. Precipitation is expected to increase in summer and fall. Changes in wintry precipitation depend on the location; however the precipitation in spring would have a medium change. The results of this study show the usefulness of OWA operator, which considers the risk attitudes of the decision maker. This approach could help water and environmental managers to tackle the climate uncertainties. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84874579562&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.01.007&partnerID=40&md5=d6f31ac03f34ddada1c62ad1e34944bd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11224
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Amir Rahmani M.,Zarghami M.. A new approach to combine climate change projections by ordered weighting averaging operator; applications to northwestern provinces of Iran[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,102.