DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.005
论文题名: Glacier and runoff changes in the Rukhk catchment, upper Amu-Darya basin until 2050
作者: Hagg W. ; Hoelzle M. ; Wagner S. ; Mayr E. ; Klose Z.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8385
出版年: 2013
卷: 110 起始页码: 62
结束页码: 73
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aral-Sea
; Glacier parameterization
; Hydrological model
; Pamirs
; Runoff scenarios
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Water resources
; Aral-Sea
; Hydrological modeling
; Manual calibration
; Pamirs
; Parameterization schemes
; Snow water equivalent
; Steady-state condition
; Water availability
; Runoff
; calibration
; catchment
; deglaciation
; future prospect
; glacial hydrology
; glacier dynamics
; hydrograph
; hydrological modeling
; parameterization
; regional climate
; runoff
; seasonality
; snow water equivalent
; steady-state equilibrium
; twentieth century
; water resource
; Amu Darya Basin
; Aral Sea
; Pamirs
; Rukhk
; Tajikistan
英文摘要: A conceptual hydrological model was set up in the upper Panj catchment, the main tributary of Amu-Darya river. After a manual calibration procedure involving model runs with different restrictions, the model reproduced both daily hydrographs of Tanimas river at the Rukhk gauging station (NSE=0.86) and the snow water equivalent of the Irkht station (R2=0.85) in a very satisfactory way. Based on two glacier inventories from the mid-20th century (WGI, World Glacier Inventory) and from 2003 (GLIMS, Global Land Ice Measurements from Space), a simple parameterization scheme based on steady state conditions was applied to infer the ice volumes and glacier areas for these different time periods. Assuming temperature rises of 2.2°C and 3.1°C, which mark the extreme values of regional climate scenarios, the same method was used to extrapolate glacierization to the year 2050. The results show that these temperature rises will reduce the current glacier extent of 431km2 by 36% and 45%, respectively.To assess future changes in water availability, the hydrological model input was modified according to the regional climate scenarios and the resulting glacier changes. The use of an elevation distributed deglacierization pattern is a clear improvement over methods used previously, where the impact on runoff was tested by excluding either the lower half or the total glacier area. The runoff scenarios reveal only a slight reduction in annual runoff, because the glacier area decrease is almost balanced out by enhanced melt rates. However, there is an important seasonal shift of water resources from summer to spring, unfavorably affecting agriculture and irrigation in the lowlands. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84887614845&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.05.005&partnerID=40&md5=75d5f73f7bd9c223ba46feec35955251
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11291
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Hagg W.,Hoelzle M.,Wagner S.,et al. Glacier and runoff changes in the Rukhk catchment, upper Amu-Darya basin until 2050[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,110.