DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027923
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052203942
论文题名: Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations
作者: Monhart S. ; Spirig C. ; Bhend J. ; Bogner K. ; Schär C. ; Liniger M.A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 15 起始页码: 7999
结束页码: 8016
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bias correction
; downscaling
; subseasonal predictions
英文摘要: Subseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time horizon is of crucial importance for many planning purposes, including energy production and agriculture. The verification of such predictions is normally done for areal averages of upper-air parameters. Only few studies exist that verify the forecasts for surface parameters with observational stations, although this is crucial for real-world applications, which often require such predictions at specific surface locations. With this study we provide an extensive station-based verification of subseasonal forecasts against 1,637 ground based observational time series across Europe. Twenty years of temperature and precipitation reforecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System are used to analyze the period of April 1995 to March 2014. A lead time and seasonally dependent bias correction is performed to correct the daily temperature and precipitation forecasts at all stations individually. Two bias correction techniques are compared, a mean debiasing method and a quantile mapping approach. Commonly used skill scores characterizing different aspects of forecast quality are computed for weekly aggregated forecasts with lead times of 5–32 days. Overall, promising skill is found for temperature in all seasons except spring. Temperature forecasts tend to show higher skill in Northern Europe and in particular around the Baltic Sea, and in winter. Bias correction is shown to be essential in enhancing the forecast skill in all four weeks for most of the stations and for both variables with QM generally performing better. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113268
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Monhart S.,Spirig C.,Bhend J.,et al. Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts in Europe: Effect of Bias Correction and Downscaling Using Surface Observations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(15)