globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028724
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052202116
论文题名:
Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models
作者: Garfinkel C.I.; Schwartz C.; Domeisen D.I.V.; Son S.-W.; Butler A.H.; White I.P.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期:15
起始页码: 7855
结束页码: 7866
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annular modes ; month-ahead prediction ; polar vortex ; Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
英文摘要: The effect of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex is evaluated in five operational subseasonal forecasting models. Of these five models, the three with the best stratospheric resolution all indicate a weakened vortex during the easterly phase of the QBO relative to its westerly phase, consistent with the Holton-Tan effect. The magnitude of this effect is well captured for initializations in late October and November in the model with the largest ensemble size. While the QBO appears to modulate the extratropical tropospheric circulation in some of the models as well, the importance of a polar stratospheric pathway, through the Holton-Tan effect, for the tropospheric anomalies is unclear. Overall, knowledge of the QBO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere winter climate on subseasonal timescales. ©2018. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113282
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Fredy and Nadine Hartmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Garfinkel C.I.,Schwartz C.,Domeisen D.I.V.,et al. Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(15)
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