DOI: 10.1029/2018JC013958
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052479119
论文题名: Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?
作者: Cattrell A.D. ; Srokosz M. ; Moat B.I. ; Marsh R.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
ISSN: 21699275
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 8 起始页码: 5624
结束页码: 5636
语种: 英语
英文关键词: freak waves
; MetOcean
; rogue waves
; wave buoy
英文摘要: Rogue waves are ocean surface waves larger than the surrounding sea that can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often deemed unpredictable without complex measurement of the wavefield and computationally intensive calculation, which is infeasible in most applications; consequently, there a need for fast predictors. Here we collate, quality control, and analyze the largest data set of single-point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence. We find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without. However, spectral bandwidth parameters of rogue seas display different probability distributions to normal seas, but these parameters are rarely provided in wave forecasts. When location is accounted for, trends can be identified in the occurrence of rogue waves as a function of the average sea state characteristics at that location. These trends follow a power law relationship with the characteristic sea state parameters: mean significant wave height and mean zero upcrossing wave period. We find that frequency of occurrence of rogue waves and their generating mechanism is not spatially uniform, and each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities, which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific and reflective of their generation mechanism. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113371
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Fluid Structure Interactions, Engineering and the Environment, Boldrewood Innovation Campus, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, United Kingdom; Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Cattrell A.D.,Srokosz M.,Moat B.I.,et al. Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,2018-01-01,123(8)