| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.009
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| 论文题名: | Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar |
| 作者: | Boutov D.; Peliz T.; Miranda P.M.A.; Soares P.M.M.; Cardoso R.M.; Prieto L.; Ruiz J.; García-Lafuente J.
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| ISSN: | 0921-8455
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 114 | | 起始页码: | 23
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| 结束页码: | 37
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Atmospheric forcing
; Empirical orthogonal function
; Exchanges
; Inter-annual variability
; Regression models
; Strait of Gibraltar
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric forcing
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Interannual variability
; Regression model
; Strait of Gibraltar
; Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Mathematical models
; Orthogonal functions
; Regression analysis
; Sea level
; Telephone exchanges
; Time series
; Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler
; air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; atmospheric forcing
; atmospheric pressure
; baroclinic motion
; barotropic motion
; empirical analysis
; marine atmosphere
; regression analysis
; time series analysis
; westerly
; Strait of Gibraltar
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| 英文摘要: | Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet.The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of this anomaly is also seen in time coefficients of the most significant EOF modes.The predictability of the exchanges for future climate is discussed. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84893119173&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.12.009&partnerID=40&md5=26b58e9dedc9b0051a4b1f567af44c5e
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11361
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: | Centro de Oceanografia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Boutov D.,Peliz T.,Miranda P.M.A.,et al. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar[J],2014-01-01,114.
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