| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.002
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| 论文题名: | Scandinavian floods: From past observations to future trends |
| 作者: | Støren E.N.; Paasche Ø.
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| ISSN: | 0921-8460
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 113 | | 起始页码: | 34
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| 结束页码: | 43
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Floods
; Holocene
; Precipitation variability
; Scandinavia
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| Scopus关键词: | Future projections
; Holocenes
; Northern Hemispheres
; Positive correlations
; Precipitation variability
; Scandinavia
; Southern Norway
; Winter precipitation
; Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Floods
; climate modeling
; flood
; Holocene
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; proxy climate record
; timescale
; Scandinavia
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| 英文摘要: | Although most climate models agree on a general increase in future precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere due to higher temperatures, no consensus has yet been reached on how this warming will perturb flooding rates. Here we examine the potential co-variability between winter precipitation (Pw) and floods on millennial time scales. This is accomplished by analyzing reconstructed Pw from five records in Scandinavia, which is, compared to data from two high-resolution flood records from southern Norway. These Holocene records reveal a positive correlation (R2=0.41, p>0.01) between the number of floods and Pw on centennial time scales over the last 6000years. Future projections for Pw over central Scandinavia for the next 100years suggest a continued increase in Pw that approximates maximum Holocene precipitation values. Despite an anticipated increase in Pw, the paleodata, nevertheless, suggest that we are likely to witness a decrease in future floods 50-100years from now because the accompanying warming will cancel that net effect of a wetter regime. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84891364161&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.12.002&partnerID=40&md5=eeba258e5b4e7081537242f399ef6761
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11366
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: | Department of Geography, University of Bergen (UoB), Fosswinckelsgate 6, Bergen, Norway
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Støren E.N.,Paasche Ø.. Scandinavian floods: From past observations to future trends[J],2014-01-01,113.
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