DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028473
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049846012
论文题名: Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations
作者: Moemken J. ; Reyers M. ; Feldmann H. ; Pinto J.G.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 12 起始页码: 6373
结束页码: 6389
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; EURO-CORDEX
; Europe
; regionalization
; wind energy
; wind speed
Scopus关键词: alternative energy
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; energy planning
; regional climate
; regionalization
; resource management
; simulation
; wind power
; wind turbine
; wind velocity
; Aegean Sea
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
; Europe
; France
; Germany
; Iberian Peninsula
; Mediterranean Sea
英文摘要: Renewable energy production is strongly influenced by weather and climate. Regional climate projections can be useful to quantify climate change impacts on renewable energies. With this aim, we analyze future changes of wind speed and wind energy potentials using a multimodel ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12 km and three-hourly resolution, considering nine different global and regional climate model chains. A comparison between modeled historical 10 m wind speeds and ERA-Interim-driven evaluation runs for the same regional climate models uncovers some substantial model biases. The bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds are extrapolated to the hub height of a wind turbine to derive gridded wind energy output (Eout). The ensemble mean responses project only small changes of mean annual and winter Eout for large parts of Europe in future decades, but a considerable decrease for summer Eout. In terms of variability, increasing intraannual and interdaily variabilities are projected for large parts of northern, central, and eastern Europe. While the ensemble spread is quite large for interdaily variability, results are more robust for intraannual variability. With respect to wind speed characteristics relevant for wind energy production, a robust increase in the occurrence of low wind speeds (<3 m/s) is detected. Due to a combination of higher annual mean Eout and lower intraannual variability, climate change could be beneficial for regions like Baltic and Aegean Sea. For large parts of Germany, France, and Iberia, a lower mean Eout and increased intraannual variability may imply larger temporal/spatial fluctuations in future wind energy production and therefore a more challenging wind energy management. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113678
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Moemken J.,Reyers M.,Feldmann H.,et al. Future Changes of Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(12)