DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028444
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048980943
论文题名: Uncertainties in the Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Rainfall: Case Study of a Rainfall Event in Beijing on 7 August 2015
作者: Yu M. ; Miao S. ; Zhang H.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 11 起始页码: 6005
结束页码: 6021
语种: 英语
英文关键词: heavy rainfall
; impact
; uncertainties
; urbanization
Scopus关键词: boundary layer
; ensemble forecasting
; land use
; parameterization
; rainfall
; suburban area
; uncertainty analysis
; urbanization
; Beijing [China]
; China
英文摘要: The impact of urbanization on precipitation was investigated using a regional model with different artificial scenarios, which included unavoidable errors resulting from uncertainties related to the initial value and boundary conditions. We studied a typical summer rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 7 August 2015 to determine whether the uncertainty in parameterization schemes and the initial field affected the urban impact on rainfall. We also quantitatively analyzed the uncertainty in the impact of urban land use on heavy rainfall caused by the initial field and parameterization schemes. The results showed that the microphysics scheme had higher levels of uncertainty than the planetary boundary layer scheme in forecasting precipitation. Urban land use led to an increase in precipitation in the downwind suburban area, consistent with the results of a previous case study. The magnitude of the impact of urban land use on precipitation was about 8 mm, much smaller than the 20 mm reported in the earlier case study. We suggest that the case study probably overestimated the impact of urban land use on rainfall by about 100% because of model uncertainties. Ensemble forecasting is valuable for studies of the impact of urban land use because there is a positive correlation with precipitation and its spread. The ensemble mean analysis increased the significance of the spatial distribution of the impact of urban land use relative to the earlier case study, although the magnitude of the impact was reduced. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113701
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yu M.,Miao S.,Zhang H.. Uncertainties in the Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Rainfall: Case Study of a Rainfall Event in Beijing on 7 August 2015[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(11)