DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027930
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047633294
论文题名: Performance Evaluation of an Explicit Lightning Forecasting System
作者: Dafis S. ; Fierro A. ; Giannaros T.M. ; Kotroni V. ; Lagouvardos K. ; Mansell E.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 10 起始页码: 5130
结束页码: 5148
语种: 英语
英文关键词: high-impact weather
; lightning forecasting
; verification
英文摘要: In this study, an explicit electrification and lightning parameterization scheme implemented within the Weather Research and Forecasting model (E-WRF, Fierro et al., https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00278.1) is evaluated against selected lightning diagnostic schemes. Convection-permitting simulations of 10 high-impact weather case studies over Greece are compared against lightning observations from the ZEUS ground-based lightning detection network. The model's ability to accurately simulate these convective events is first evaluated through statistical scores of accumulated rainfall. The simulated flash origin density (FOD) fields are then assessed using statistical neighborhood methods. Overall, the simulated FOD fields have good agreement with the observations. Most of the lightning activity over the sea, however, is generally poorly forecasted. Lightning-producing events over the sea near Greece mainly occur during the cold season. Thus, lightning forecast with E-WRF appear to have better skill during the warm season. The simulated areal coverage of FOD using E-WRF also reduces the false alarms of lightning activity both over land and sea compared to a well-documented diagnostic lightning prediction scheme. Given its relatively low computational cost, these results support the potential use of E-WRF for real-time lightning predictions at convection-allowing scales. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113862
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Athens, Greece; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dafis S.,Fierro A.,Giannaros T.M.,et al. Performance Evaluation of an Explicit Lightning Forecasting System[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(10)