DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028043
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046479054
论文题名: Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2
作者: Ren P. ; Ren H.-L. ; Fu J.-X. ; Wu J. ; Du L.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 9 起始页码: 4423
结束页码: 4442
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; extreme rainfall
; impact
; intraseasonal oscillation
; predictability
; southeastern China
Scopus关键词: climate oscillation
; climate prediction
; convergence
; extreme event
; moisture transfer
; physical analysis
; probability
; rainfall
; summer
; tropical region
; China
; Yangtze River
英文摘要: The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability of the tropical climate system, which has prominent northward propagation extending much further from the equator. The impacts of BSISO on extreme rainfall in eastern China were studied using the BSISO indices and daily rainfall data in China. We revealed that the responses of extreme rainfall to BSISO activity in eastern China are not spatially uniform. Under the influences of BSISO1, the probability-distribution functions of rainfall in two southeastern China subregions: South China and Yangtze River Valley significantly skew toward larger values, respectively, in phases 4 and 8, and phases 3 and 4 with the probability of 90th extremes increased by 35–45% relative to May–August rainfall probability-distribution function, showing southward propagation with the speed of 1.96°/phase. Under the BSISO2, the probability of the 90th extremes increased more than 40% in South China and Yangtze River Valley, respectively, during phases 4–5 and phases 6–7, showing northward propagation with a speed of 2.75°/phase. Physical analysis showed that the increased probability of extreme rainfall is associated with intensifying moisture convergence and upward moisture transport during BSISO active phases. The hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System version 2 have been used to evaluate the modulations of BSISO on extreme rainfall and associated predictability. It was shown that the Climate Forecast System version well reproduces the modulations of BSISO on extreme rainfall within 2 weeks. These results demonstrate the feasibility to develop medium-to-extended-range probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall for southeastern China. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113891
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environment Studies University of Geoscience, Wuhan, China; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Hubei, China
Recommended Citation:
Ren P.,Ren H.-L.,Fu J.-X.,et al. Impact of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Rainfall Extremes in Southeastern China and its Predictability in CFSv2[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(9)