DOI: 10.1029/2017JG004348
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047604186
论文题名: Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)
作者: Lawrence P.J. ; Lawrence D.M. ; Hurtt G.C.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
ISSN: 21698953
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 5 起始页码: 1732
结束页码: 1755
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle
; CESM
; CMIP5
; human emissions
; land cover change
Scopus关键词: afforestation
; anthropogenic source
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; CMIP
; emission
; flux measurement
; land cover
; land use
; model
; simulation
英文摘要: Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of −94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing −227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113953
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lawrence P.J.,Lawrence D.M.,Hurtt G.C.. Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences,2018-01-01,123(5)