| DOI: | 10.1002/2017JD027740
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85047483759
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| 论文题名: | Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data |
| 作者: | Zidikheri M.J.; Lucas C.; Potts R.J.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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| ISSN: | 2169897X
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 123, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 4135
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| 结束页码: | 4156
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | data assimilation
; ensemble forecasting
; forecast calibration
; forecast verification
; inverse modeling
; volcanic ash
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| Scopus关键词: | atmospheric modeling
; calibration
; data assimilation
; dispersion
; ensemble forecasting
; numerical model
; probability
; quantitative analysis
; satellite data
; source parameters
; volcanic ash
; volcanic eruption
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| 英文摘要: | In this paper, we address the problem of verifying and calibrating ensemble-based probabilistic volcanic ash forecasts. The ensemble members are constructed from dispersion model simulations with different meteorological fields obtained from an ensemble meteorological forecast model and different values of ash source parameters such as ash column height and vertical mass distribution. The Brier score is employed to verify the probabilistic forecasts relative to binary-valued ash detection fields and fully quantitative satellite-retrieved ash mass load fields. A new ensemble forecast calibration methodology, which treats the meteorological and source term variations on equal footing, is also developed. This enables the creation of an ensemble subset yielding higher Brier skill scores than the uncalibrated ensemble during a calibration time window of about 6 hr after the start of an eruption. It is shown that this can be used to improve probabilistic forecasts up to 24 hr after the start of the eruption using the Indonesian 13 February 2014 Kelut and 6 November 2015 Rinjani eruptions as case studies. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114054
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Zidikheri M.J.,Lucas C.,Potts R.J.. Quantitative Verification and Calibration of Volcanic Ash Ensemble Forecasts Using Satellite Data[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(8)
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