DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027928
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044866248
论文题名: A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events
作者: Taniguchi K.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 7 起始页码: 3443
结束页码: 3461
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; ensemble simulation
; high-impact weather
; numerical weather model
Scopus关键词: assessment method
; climate change
; climate effect
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; global warming
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; spatial resolution
; storm track
; typhoon
; weather
英文摘要: To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114084
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Environmental Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Taniguchi K.. A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(7)