DOI: 10.1002/2017JD028155
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045849287
论文题名: Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China
作者: Zhang M. ; Meng Z.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 7 起始页码: 3574
结束页码: 3593
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble-based sensitivity analysis
; low-level jet
; persistent heavy rainfall
; south China
; stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills
Scopus关键词: ensemble forecasting
; forecasting method
; jet
; moisture transfer
; persistence
; precipitation assessment
; rainfall
; sensitivity analysis
; synoptic meteorology
; uncertainty analysis
; vortex
; China
; Guangdong
英文摘要: This study investigates the stage-dependent rainfall forecast skills and the associated synoptic-scale features in a persistent heavy rainfall event in south China, Guangdong Province, during 29–31 March 2014, using operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This persistent rainfall was divided into two stages with a better precipitation forecast skill in Stage 2 (S2) than Stage 1 (S1) although S2 had a longer lead time. Using ensemble-based sensitivity analysis, key synoptic-scale factors that affected the rainfall were diagnosed by correlating the accumulated precipitation of each stage to atmospheric state variables in the middle of respective stage. The precipitation in both stages was found to be significantly correlated with midlevel trough, low-level vortex, and particularly the low-level jet on the southeast flank of the vortex and its associated moisture transport. The rainfall forecast skill was mainly determined by the forecast accuracy in the location of the low-level jet, which was possibly related to the different juxtapositions between the direction of the movement of the low-level vortex and the orientation of the low-level jet. The uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S1 was mainly from the location uncertainty of the low-level jet, while the uncertainty in rainfall forecast in S2 was mainly from the width uncertainty of the low-level jet with the relatively accurate location of the low-level jet. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114100
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang M.,Meng Z.. Impact of Synoptic-Scale Factors on Rainfall Forecast in Different Stages of a Persistent Heavy Rainfall Event in South China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(7)