DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012824
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045283964
论文题名: El Niño, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Coral Bleaching in the South Atlantic: A Chain of Events Modeled With a Bayesian Approach
作者: Lisboa D.S. ; Kikuchi R.K.P. ; Leão Z.M.A.N.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
ISSN: 21699275
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 4 起始页码: 2554
结束页码: 2569
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abrolhos reefs
; Bayesian network
; coral bleaching forecast
; ENSO
; remote sensing
; thermal index
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis
; coral bleaching
; coral reef
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; index method
; remote sensing
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (South)
; Anthozoa
英文摘要: Coral bleaching represents one of the main climate-change related threats to reef ecosystems. This research represents a methodological alternative for modeling this phenomenon, focused on assessing uncertainties and complexities with a low number of observations. To develop this model, intermittent reef monitoring data from the largest reef complex in the South Atlantic collected over nine summers between 2000 and 2014 were used with remote sensing data to construct and train a bleaching seasonal prediction model. The Bayesian approach was used to construct the network as it is suitable for hierarchically organizing local thermal variables and combining them with El Niño indicators from the preceding winter to generate accurate bleaching predictions for the coming season. Network count information from six environmental indicators was used to calculate the probability of bleaching, which is mainly influenced by the combined information of two thermal indices; one thermal index is designed to track short period anomalies in the early summer that are capable of triggering bleaching (SST of five consecutive days), and the other index is responsible for tracking the accumulation of thermal stress over time, an index called degree heating trimester (DHT). In addition to developing the network, this study conducted the three tests of applicability proposed for model: 1- Perform the forecast of coral bleaching for the summer of 2016; 2- Investigate the role of turbidity during the bleaching episodes; and 3- Use the model information to identify areas with a lower predisposition to bleaching events. © 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114112
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Coral Reef and Global Climate Change Research Group, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Ondina, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil; Post-graduate Program in Geology, Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Ondina, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Lisboa D.S.,Kikuchi R.K.P.,Leão Z.M.A.N.. El Niño, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly and Coral Bleaching in the South Atlantic: A Chain of Events Modeled With a Bayesian Approach[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,2018-01-01,123(4)