globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027703
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043376466
论文题名:
Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)
作者: Akperov M.; Rinke A.; Mokhov I.I.; Matthes H.; Semenov V.A.; Adakudlu M.; Cassano J.; Christensen J.H.; Dembitskaya M.A.; Dethloff K.; Fettweis X.; Glisan J.; Gutjahr O.; Heinemann G.; Koenigk T.; Koldunov N.V.; Laprise R.; Mottram R.; Nikiéma O.; Scinocca J.F.; Sein D.; Sobolowski S.; Winger K.; Zhang W.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期:5
起始页码: 2537
结束页码: 2554
语种: 英语
英文关键词: arctic ; CORDEX ; cyclones ; RCM ; reanalyses ; spectral nudging
Scopus关键词: climate modeling ; cyclone ; ensemble forecasting ; spatial distribution ; summer ; trend analysis ; wind velocity ; winter ; zonal wind ; Arctic
英文摘要: The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114272
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation; Institute of Geography, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liege, Belgium; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Environmental Meteorology, Faculty of Regional and Environmental Sciences, University of Trier, Trier, Germany; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Department of Meteorology, Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Bremen, Germany; Centre ESCER, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Center for Permafrost, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Recommended Citation:
Akperov M.,Rinke A.,Mokhov I.I.,et al. Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(5)
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