| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.011
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| 论文题名: | Sharper detection of winter temperature changes in the Romanian higher-elevations |
| 作者: | Croitoru A.-E.; Drignei D.; Dragotǎ C.S.; Imecs Z.; Burada D.C.
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| ISSN: | 0921-8536
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 122 | | 起始页码: | 122
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| 结束页码: | 129
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Carpathians
; Change point
; Climate change
; Correlation
; Regression
; Temperature
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Correlation methods
; Mathematical models
; Regression analysis
; Temperature
; Climate change
; Correlation methods
; Errors
; Mathematical models
; Regression analysis
; Temperature
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Carpathians
; Change-point models
; Change-points
; Multiple regression model
; Regression
; Statistically dependent
; Temperature changes
; Errors
; Atmospheric temperature
; altitude
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; winter
; climate change
; elevation
; temperature gradient
; topography
; Romania
; Carpathians
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| 英文摘要: | This paper investigates winter temperature trends in the Romanian higher-altitude areas, for three types of topographies: depression, slope and summit. The main challenge is that some winter temperature trends, by comparison with the other seasons, are milder and harder to detect. We used a change-point regression model with statistically dependent errors and compared it with a standard change-point model with independent errors. Statistical theory ensures that the former model gives a more accurate trend analysis than the latter. The model with statistically dependent errors detects change-points in the mid 70s and statistically significant increasing trends both before and after the change-point. On the other hand, the model with independent errors does not detect statistically significant increasing trends after the change-points for the winter series. These general results occur for all topography types. A separate multiple regression model reveals that the winter temperature trend changes in the Romanian higher-elevations can be described by a linear additive effect of several global atmospheric circulation patterns. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84906724317&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2014.08.011&partnerID=40&md5=d6905d8f025f9c5e9ba9d72b0e21fb10
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11442
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: | Department of Physical and Technical Geography, Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Cluj, Romania
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Croitoru A.-E.,Drignei D.,Dragotǎ C.S.,et al. Sharper detection of winter temperature changes in the Romanian higher-elevations[J],2014-01-01,122.
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