DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027219
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041561317
论文题名: Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950
作者: Blanchet J. ; Aly C. ; Vischel T. ; Panthou G. ; Sané Y. ; Diop Kane M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 3 起始页码: 1536
结束页码: 1551
语种: 英语
英文关键词: co-occurrence
; extreme rainfall
; trend
; West Africa
英文摘要: We propose in this paper a statistical framework to study the evolution of the co-occurrence of extreme daily rainfall in West Africa since 1950. We consider two regions subject to contrasted rainfall regimes: Senegal and the central Sahel. We study the likelihood of the 3% largest daily rainfall (considering all days) in each region to occur simultaneously and, in a 20 year moving window approach, how this likelihood has evolved with time. Our method uses an anisotropic max-stable process allowing us to properly represent the co-occurrence of daily extremes and including the possibility of a preferred direction of co-occurrence. In Senegal, a change is found in the 1980s, with preferred co-occurrence along the E-50-N direction (i.e., along azimuth 50°) before the 1980s and weaker isotropic co-occurrence afterward. In central Sahel, a change is also found in the 1980s but surprisingly with contrasting results. Anisotropy along the E-W direction is found over the whole period, with greater extension after the 1980s. The paper discusses how the co-occurrence of extremes can provide a qualitative indicator on change in size and propagation of the strongest storms. This calls for further research to identify the atmospheric processes responsible for such contrasted changes in storm properties. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114463
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, Grenoble, France; Physical Sciences Division, ANACIM, Dakar-Yoff, Senegal
Recommended Citation:
Blanchet J.,Aly C.,Vischel T.,et al. Trend in the Co-Occurrence of Extreme Daily Rainfall in West Africa Since 1950[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(3)