DOI: 10.1002/2017JF004367
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041858342
论文题名: Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach
作者: Antolínez J.A.A. ; Murray A.B. ; Méndez F.J. ; Moore L.J. ; Farley G. ; Wood J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
ISSN: 21699003
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 2 起始页码: 229
结束页码: 251
语种: 英语
英文关键词: alongshore sediment transport
; climate change
; hybrid downscaling
; large scale
; shoreline evolution
; wave climate variability
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; coastal evolution
; downscaling
; hybrid zone
; sediment transport
; wave climate
; United States
英文摘要: Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114515
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Departamento de Ciencias y Técnicas del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, E.T.S.I. de Caminos, Canales y Puertos, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros, Santander, Spain; Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Center for Nonlinear and Complex Systems, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, Coastal Environmental Change Laboratory, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Antolínez J.A.A.,Murray A.B.,Méndez F.J.,et al. Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface,2018-01-01,123(2)