DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013053
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044043711
论文题名: Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988–2014)
作者: Kumar V. ; Melet A. ; Meyssignac B. ; Ganachaud A. ; Kessler W.S. ; Singh A. ; Aucan J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
ISSN: 21699275
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 2 起始页码: 1502
结束页码: 1518
语种: 英语
英文关键词: local sea levels
; statistical downscaling
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; decadal variation
; downscaling
; reconstruction
; regression analysis
; Rossby wave
; sea level
; sea surface temperature
; small island state
; statistical analysis
; thermocline
; trend analysis
; wave propagation
; wind stress
; Fiji
; Fiji
; New Caledonia [Melanesia]
; New Caledonia [New Caledonia (DPN)]
; Noumea
; Pacific islands
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Southwest)
; Suva
; Viti Levu
英文摘要: Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988–2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models. © 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114550
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France; Mercator Ocean, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France; NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States; PaCE-SD, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji; LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Nouméa, New Caledonia, France
Recommended Citation:
Kumar V.,Melet A.,Meyssignac B.,et al. Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988–2014)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,2018-01-01,123(2)