DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013143
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040745772
论文题名: Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century
作者: Cid A. ; Wahl T. ; Chambers D.P. ; Muis S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
ISSN: 21699275
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 1 起始页码: 437
结束页码: 451
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extreme value analysis
; return water level
; Southeast Asia
; statistical model
; storm surge
Scopus关键词: environmental conditions
; estimation method
; numerical model
; principal component analysis
; reconstruction
; sea level
; statistical analysis
; storm surge
; tide gauge
; twentieth century
; water level
; Southeast Asia
英文摘要: We present a methodology to reconstruct the daily maximum storm surge levels, obtained from tide gauges, based on the surrounding atmospheric conditions from an atmospheric reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis—20CR). Tide gauge records in Southeast Asia are relatively short, so this area is often underrepresented in studies based on long observational records, and there are just a few studies that have analyzed storm surge trends, variability or return water levels (RWLs) from numerical models in this area. Here we develop, calibrate, and validate a multivariate linear regression model that relates the storm surge with the principal components of the local atmospheric conditions. This allows us to reconstruct storm surges for the 147 year 20CR period (1866–2012) and therefore to calculate more robust RWLs from the entire simulated data set and subsets thereof. RWLs are obtained by fitting the monthly maxima values to the Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We find an increase in the 50 year RWL from the second half of the 19th century to the present unrelated to mean sea level; this increase is less noticeable when comparing only recent periods. Therefore, further research is needed since there is evidence that atmospheric reanalyses can include spurious trends in the late 19th and early 20th. RWLs obtained from the statistical reconstruction are validated against the ones obtained from observations and from a numerical model. Agreements are generally higher when using surge levels from the statistical model, even before its calibration. © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114730
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, United States; Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering & Sustainable Coastal Systems Cluster, University of Central Florida, Orlando, United States; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Cid A.,Wahl T.,Chambers D.P.,et al. Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,2018-01-01,123(1)