DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.09.002
论文题名: Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland
作者: Orford J. ; Murdy J.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 133 起始页码: 254
结束页码: 262
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 20th-century
; AMO
; Belfast tide gauge data
; Extreme surge
; NAO
; Periodic variation
Scopus关键词: Cluster analysis
; Gages
; 20th century
; AMO
; Extreme surge
; NAO
; Periodic variation
; Tide gauge data
; Tide gages
; air mass
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; atmosphere-ocean system
; data assimilation
; extreme event
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; periodicity
; storm surge
; temporal variation
; tide gauge
; twentieth century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Belfast [Northern Ireland]
; Northern Ireland
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901-2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15-25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80. year fluctuation in atmospheric-oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (- NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941656449&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.09.002&partnerID=40&md5=8be1d0a112ac1e3cf32c020ff27c7ac0
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11496
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Orford J.,Murdy J.. Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,133.