DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.03.001
论文题名: Uncertainty evaluation of copula analysis of hydrological droughts in the East River basin, China
作者: Zhang Q. ; Xiao M. ; Singh V.P.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 129 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 9
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian model
; Copula
; Hydrological drought
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Distribution functions
; Drought
; Rivers
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water management
; Watersheds
; Bayesian approaches
; Bayesian model
; Copula
; Hydrological droughts
; Marginal distribution
; Uncertainty
; Uncertainty evaluation
; Waterresource management
; Water resources
; Bayesian analysis
; drought
; extreme event
; hydrological response
; hydrometeorology
; uncertainty analysis
; water management
; China
; Dong Basin
; Guangdong
; Hong Kong
; Zhujiang Delta
英文摘要: The joint probability behaviors of extreme hydro-meteorological events, such as droughts, have been receiving increasing attentions in recent years. Since extreme hydro-meteorological events are reflected by more than one variable, such as duration and intensity, copula functions have been widely applied. However, uncertainties of copula-based analysis of hydrological droughts as a result of selection of marginal distribution and copulas have not yet received significant concerns. The aim of this study is to evaluate such uncertainties based on Bayesian approach. The method is used to analyze hydrological drought in the East River basin (China), which is the principal supplier of water resources for megacities in the Pearl River Delta and also for Hong Kong. The results indicate that the credible intervals of most likely design drought events with a return period of 20. years in terms of drought severity and duration are considerably large at all stations in the East River basin, covering the drought event curves at return periods of 10 and 50. years. Also the influences of heavy-tailed marginal distribution on the uncertainty evaluation of joint distribution have been investigated. Results show that the stronger the heavy-tailed marginal distribution, the greater the uncertainty of the joint distribution, especially for the extreme event. Results of this study provide a technical reference for uncertainty evaluation in copula-based analysis of drought events at regional and global scales. The large credible interval of drought severity and duration greatly challenges measures of mitigation of drought hazards and water resource management. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925013476&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.03.001&partnerID=40&md5=585196dfb6b4ce16f1fa8fb8d421df36
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11526
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang Q.,Xiao M.,Singh V.P.. Uncertainty evaluation of copula analysis of hydrological droughts in the East River basin, China[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,129.