DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.03.005
论文题名: Possible future projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) with the evaluation of model performance in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
作者: Parth Sarthi P. ; Ghosh S. ; Kumar P.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 129 起始页码: 92
结束页码: 106
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
; Historical experiment
; Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)
; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
; Taylor diagram
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Water resources
; Anticyclonic circulation
; Indian summer monsoon
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Project phase
; Quantitative and qualitative assessments
; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Taylor diagrams
; Rain
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; performance assessment
; rainfall
; spatiotemporal analysis
; wind field
; India
英文摘要: The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is crucial for agriculture and water resources in India. The large spatial and temporal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) leads to flood and drought especially over northern plains of India, so quantitative and qualitative assessment of future projected rainfall will be important for policy framework. Evaluation of models performance in simulating rainfall and wind circulation of the Historical experiment (1961-2005) and its future projected change in RCPs (2006-2050) 4.5 and 8.5 in CMIP5 are carried out. In the Historical experiment, the model simulated rainfall is validated with observed rainfall of IMD (1961-2005) and GPCP (1979-2005) and only six (6) models BCC-CSM1.1(m), CCSM4, CESM1(BGC), CESM1(CAM5), CESM1(WACCM), and MPI-ESM-MR are found suitable in capturing ISMR and JJAS wind circulation at 850 & 200. hPa as in NCEP reanalysis, which shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850. hPa and cyclonic circulation at 200. hPa along with excess and deficit rainfall over monsoon regions of NWI, NEI, WCI, CNI and PI at 99% & 95% confidence levels. Future projected change of JJAS wind shows anticyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850. hPa and cyclonic circulation around 40°. N,70°E-90°E at 200. hPa which may be a possible cause of changes in JJAS rainfall over Indian regions. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84927779846&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.03.005&partnerID=40&md5=4b001a3411b64f47dfb6a6f9d1cf0945
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11527
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centre for Environmental Sciences, Central University of Bihar, Patna, Bihar, India
Recommended Citation:
Parth Sarthi P.,Ghosh S.,Kumar P.. Possible future projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) with the evaluation of model performance in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,129.