DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.001
论文题名: Future sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta floodplains: Impacts of hydropower development, climate change and sea level rise
作者: Manh N.V. ; Dung N.V. ; Hung N.N. ; Kummu M. ; Merz B. ; Apel H.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 127 起始页码: 22
结束页码: 33
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Dam impact
; Floodplains
; Sea level rise
; Sediment dynamics
Scopus关键词: Banks (bodies of water)
; Dynamics
; Floods
; Hydroelectric power
; Sea level
; Sediment transport
; Sedimentation
; Sediments
; Suspended sediments
; Dam impacts
; Flood plain hydrologies
; Flood-plains
; Floodplain sedimentation
; Hydro-power development
; Sea level rise
; Sediment dynamic
; Sedimentation pattern
; Climate change
; climate change
; floodplain
; human activity
; hydrological response
; power generation
; sea level change
; sediment analysis
; sediment transport
; sedimentation
; two-dimensional modeling
; Cambodia
; Mekong Delta
; Pacific Ocean
; South China Sea
; Tonle Sap Lake
; Viet Nam
英文摘要: The Mekong Delta is under threat due to human activities that are endangering livelihood of millions of people. Hydropower development, climate change and the combined effects of sea level rise and deltaic subsidence are the main drivers impacting future flow regimes and sedimentation patterns in the Mekong Delta. We develop a sensitivity-based approach to assess the response of the floodplain hydrology and sediment dynamics in the delta to these drivers. A quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of suspended sediment dynamics is used to simulate the sediment transport and sediment deposition in the delta, including Tonle Sap Lake, for a baseline (2000-2010) and a future (2050-2060) period. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future states and discretize it into different levels, resulting in 216 combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. Our results indicate that hydropower development dominates the changes in floodplain sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. The median changes of the three drivers combined indicate that the inundation extent would increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would decrease by approximately 40%, and the sediment load to the South China Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. The maximum changes in all drivers would mean a nearly 90% reduction of delta sedimentation and a 95% reduction of the sediment reaching the sea. Our findings provide new and valuable information on the possible future development of floodplain hydraulics and sedimentation in the Mekong Delta and identify the areas that are most vulnerable to these changes. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921863006&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.01.001&partnerID=40&md5=5ac9a81021cb8bb1364918813d3bb806
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11549
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: GFZ - German Research Center for Geoscience, Section 5.4 Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Manh N.V.,Dung N.V.,Hung N.N.,et al. Future sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta floodplains: Impacts of hydropower development, climate change and sea level rise[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,127.