DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.009
论文题名: Hydrological changes in the U.S. Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study: Part 1. Modeling and analysis of the past
作者: Parr D. ; Wang G.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 122 起始页码: 208
结束页码: 222
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme precipitation
; Flood
; Hydrological trend
; Northeast
; VIC
Scopus关键词: Extreme precipitation
; Hydrological changes
; Hydrological trend
; Model and analysis
; Northeast
; River basins
; VIC
; Floods
; climate change
; evapotranspiration
; flood
; hydrological change
; meteorology
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; precipitation intensity
; river discharge
; runoff
; Connecticut Basin
; United States
英文摘要: Increase of precipitation intensity is the most definite and detectable hydrological consequence of a warmer climate. Among all U.S. regions, the Northeast has witnessed the strongest increase of extreme precipitation in the past five decades. This study examines the impact of climate changes during 1950-2011 on hydrological processes in the Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study. In addition to precipitation and river discharge data from observations, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model is used to derive hydrological variables for which long-term observational data are not readily available. Our results show a clear increase of precipitation intensity, with substantial increase in both the number of days with greater than 10. mm precipitation and the simple daily intensity index. From 1950 to 2011, extreme precipitation amount (which is the total amount of precipitation from the upper 1% of daily precipitation) increased substantially, by 240% relative to the 1950 level. The weight of extreme precipitation as a fraction of total precipitation also increased, from about 10.6% in the 1950s to 30.4% in the 2000s. Despite the increase of precipitation extremes, the consecutive dry days experienced a slight decrease. Mean trend analysis shows indications of increasing precipitation amount, increasing discharge, increasing runoff ratios, increasing soil moisture, and a negligible evapotranspiration trend. Our simulations suggest that the basin is entering a wetter regime more subject to meteorological flood conditions than to drought conditions. A companion paper will investigate how these trends may persist or differ in the mid-21st century under continued warming. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84907703235&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2014.08.009&partnerID=40&md5=32fb8772a0298024ea7fbff43ffdab67
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11583
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Parr D.,Wang G.. Hydrological changes in the U.S. Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study: Part 1. Modeling and analysis of the past[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,122.