DOI: 10.3354/cr01530
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054864053
论文题名: Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures
作者: Sonali P. ; Nanjundiah R.S. ; Kumar D.N.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2018
卷: 76, 期: 2 起始页码: 145
结束页码: 160
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Attribution
; Climate change
; CMIP5 models
; Detection
; Fingerprint
; Signal strength
; South India
; Temperature
英文摘要: South India has seen significant changes in climate. Previous studies have shown that the southern part of India is more susceptible to effects of climate change than the rest of the country. We performed a rigorous climate model-based detection and attribution analysis to determine the root cause of the recent changes in climate over South India using fingerprint analysis. A modified Mann-Kendall test signalized non-stationariness in maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) in most seasons during the period 1950-2012. The diminishing cloud cover trend may have induced significant changes in temperature during the considered time period. Significant downward trends in relative humidity during most seasons could be evidence of the recent significant warming. The observed seasonal Tmax and Tmin change patterns are strongly associated with the El Ninõ Southern Oscillation. Significant positive associations between South India temperatures and the Ninõ3.4 index were found in all seasons. The fingerprint approach indicated that the natural internal variability obtained from 14 climate model control simulations could not explain these significant changes in Tmax (post-monsoon) and Tmin (pre-monsoon and monsoon) in South India. Moreover, an experiment simulating natural external forcings (solar and volcanic) did not coincide with the observed signal strength. The dominant external factors leading to climate change are greenhouse gases, and their impact is eminent compared to other factors such as land use change and anthropogenic aerosols. Anthropogenic signals are identifiable in observed changes in Tmax and Tmin of South India, and these changes can be explained only when anthropogenic forcing is involved. © 2018 Inter-Research. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116256
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
Recommended Citation:
Sonali P.,Nanjundiah R.S.,Kumar D.N.. Detection and attribution of climate change signals in South India maximum and minimum temperatures[J]. Climate Research,2018-01-01,76(2)